Kevin_Lemanowicz's Blog

What did you think of this storm?  I have to admit, I went home after the 11pm newscast Tuesday night was awake thinking about it.  It has been some time that a forecast has given me so much consternation.  In the end, it worked out quite well as forecast.  The snow arrived early.  The change happened where it was supposed to around lunchtime.  Heavy rain did follow the snow and sleet.  It stayed freezing rain in central and western Massachusetts.  Finally, the heaviest snow was in northern ski country. 

Still, there was this surprise.  Temperatures on the south shore, Cape Cod, and those islands spiked during the evening to over 50 degrees!  This was just ahead of the cold front that was moving through.  The southerly flow increased ahead of the front, ushering in the extremely mild air.  Those temperatures didn't stay long.  Once the cold front did go through, it was back through the 40s and into the 30s. 

Here are some snow totals from this mess, as reported by you, our viewers and spotters.

Amherst, NH 6"
Atkinson, NH 5"
Billerica 6"
Concord 4"
Danvers 6"
Dorchester 4.1"
Dover 7"
Duxbury 3"
Francestown, NH 11"
Franklin 4"
Henniker 8.5"
Hingham 3.6"
Hooksett, NH 7"
Leicester 4"
Lowell 4"
Middleboro 2.1"
Millis 3"
New London, NH 13"
Sturbridge 4"
Taunton 2.1"
Tewksbury 6.5"
Tilton, NH 12"
Wareham 3.5"
Winthrop 4.3"

Here's a link to the National Weather Service List
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&form
at=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&p
roduct=PNS

It has been a week since our last significant snowfall over much of the area.  Sure, it did get cold again, but aren't you longing for the snow to return?  We've already had more snow than we normally get in an entire season, but why be content?  After all, have you ever had better snow forts, snow people, sledding, tubing, or skiing?  Sure you have!  Still, it is nice.

After an interruption in our snowy pattern, it looks like we will be returning to the original winter 2008-2009 program.  A storm looks to be on the way for Wednesday and a whole bunch of snow is possible.

Why the uncertainty in those statements?  Simply because we can only guess, so far, as to the track and intensity of this storm.  The computer models are telling us a storm is coming, but until I see it for real, I have to wonder...  

Stay tuned!

kpl 

Did you read about the rare bird sighting in Gloucester?

Check out this story...

While many people were inside trying to keep warm Saturday morning, birdwatcher Jeremiah Trimble was stepping out of his car at the Eastern Point lighthouse in Gloucester to take a look at the line of gulls perching on the breakwater. It was "absolutely freezing," he said. But what he saw through his binoculars at about 11:30 a.m. was well worth the pain.

"The tenth bird I saw was a small, pure white gull. It was a long ways off, but I was pretty confident in what it was," said Trimble, 30, of Cambridge. "I thought, 'Wow, this is an ivory gull!'"

It was the first sighting of the bird, which usually makes its home in the high Arctic, in more than two decades in Massachusetts, according to officials at the Massachusetts Audubon Society, and hundreds of birdwatchers, including some from hundreds of miles away, have been flocking to Gloucester since then to see it. A second ivory gull was also spotted today in Plymouth, stirring even more excitement among birders.

Ivory gulls grow to be 16 to 17 inches long, with a wingspan of 43 to 47 inches. Their feathers are white, their feet are black, their eyes are black and their bills are bluish at the base, turning grayish green, with a yellow or red tip, according to the Cornell Lab of Ornithology website. The bird only rarely comes south of the Bering Sea or Canada's Maritime Provinces and typically spends the winter on the ice north of Newfoundland, the website said.

"The ivory gull is about as northern a bird as you can imagine. They really are associated with pack ice and Arctic oceans," said Wayne Petersen, director of the Massachusetts Important Bird Areas program at the society.

Petersen said the birds are a magnet for birdwatchers and in the past few days people from Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Maryland have traveled to Gloucester to get a glimpse of a bird they would normally have to travel to the top of the world to see. Scientists believe that the species is declining so that makes it even more of an attraction, he said.

He said it wasn't clear what brought the two gulls to Massachusetts, but it was probably something in their normal habitat, such as possibly bad weather or a food shortage, that had driven them to wander southwards.

Trimble, whose day job is managing the bird collection at Harvard University, said it was an unusual experience to see a bird that normally lives so far away and has been known to scavenge the scraps from polar bear kills.

"They're pretty amazing birds when you think of it, how they survive that way," he said.

Trimble said he went back to Gloucester Monday and hundreds of people had come to the same parking lot for a glimpse of the bird.

Petersen said there was no telling how long the ivory gulls would stay in the area. "If the living is easy, they may stick around," he said.

Any thoughts as to why they are here?  There are plenty of polar bears, so don't tell me the bears are dying and not killing enough.  What could it be...?

 

The totals are in from this holiday weekend's snowfall.  Feel free to add yours here if you have accurate readings.  Remember you can always get more snow reports from the National Weather Service at http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&forma
t=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&pr
oduct=PNS 

We are lucky to have many reliable reporters in the field sending in measurements during these storms.  It is important for any meteorologist to have reliable reports to do the best job possible.  Thank you for all your help. 

These are storm totals including snow from Sunday morning and Sunday night/Monday morning...

Somerset  11.5"
Dorchester  12.25"
Winthrop  12.9"
Mansfield  12.7"
Leicester  12"
Hooksett, NH  11.5"
Concord  12.5"
Middleboro  9.35"
Peabody  14.5"
Attleboro  14.5"

Also, Sugarloaf in Maine has 18" of new powder.  Still, you don't have to drive far to find some good powder... Nashoba was exquisite Monday!

Are you ready to move south and become a redneck? 

Several inches of snow started Sunday.  A break in the action lulled you back onto the roads Sunday afternoon.  During the evening, another area of low pressure, a different one, made its way up the coast.  As I write this at 11:55 pm, we are in the midst of the new 2-4" on top of the earlier snow.  At my house, that means we should be up around 10" by morning.  Great for skiing and snow forts, but bad for my plowing bill.

You can do like my parents did in 1991, move south and take to that redneck lifestyle.  Me, I'll stick to my New England roots.  I wouldn't have it any other way.

kpl

If you know how cold the water is off the Cape in the summer, can you imagine how cold it must have been in the Hudson River?

Temperatures in New York City Thursday afternoon were in the low 20s.  The snow had moved away by then, so conditions for flying were very good.  As you know by now, US Airways flight 1549 did a control landing in the river Thursday just before 3:30 pm.  The water temperature was about 41 degrees according to buoy data.  When water is that cold, you will lose body heat rapidly.  You will quickly lose feeling in your extremities and control of your motor skills.  While it is possible to survive in 40 degree water for up to an hour, that time goes down with every struggle or swimming stroke you take.  Strong swimmers have run into trouble in water this cold after as little as 100 feet.  People were rescued very quickly from the water after this landing Thursday, avoiding hypothermia caused drownings. 

Perspective... Cape water temperatures in the summer are typically in the 60s.  That's 20 degrees warmer than the Hudson right now. 

How did I do?  How did WE do?

When last I forecast for you, Thursday night, we were gearing up for a snowstorm.  I actually raised my totals a bit to 5-8", with a little less on the outer Cape and Islands.  Of course, many of you hit the hay after the football game without seeing my forecast.  The one most of you saw was the slightly lesser amounts, 3-6"  generally, and probably think I nailed it.  Well, the 5-8" turned out to be ok, with one big caveat.  The storm's more northern track pushed some of the higher totals into the coldest air to the north in Massachusetts and southern New Hampshire, rather than the highest amounts being farther south.  A.J. adjusted this when he saw it developing Saturday night, back to something similar to my original forecast.  I guess I shouldn't have changed my answer... of course, it isn't multiple choice. 

Funny story... I went to get some dinner after the 5 and 5:30 newscasts.  When I was leaving, a nice gentleman asked me how much snow for Norwood.  I told him 4 and a half inches.  The National Weather Service lists Norwood as of 11:45 am Sunday as... drum roll... 4.5 inches.  Whoa!  I hope he told all his friends.  You can get the complete list from the National Weather Service here... 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format
=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&pro
duct=PNS

Note that Boston ended up with 5.8"... just inside my 5-8" forecast Thursday, even when I was a bit too high for the south shore.

Here are some totals sent in by our spotters...
Henniker, NH  8"
Concord  4.5"
Hooksett, NH  8.5"
Atkinson, NH  8.1"
Beverly  6.5"
Winthrop  5.7"
Milford  4.1"
Hingham  4.4"
Holbrook  4"
Penacook, NH  7.5"
New Ipswich, NH  8.25"
Marlborough  4"
Attleboro  3"
Peabody  8.5"
Marblehead  5.5"
Duxbury  4.5"
Middleboro  3.9"
Wareham  3"

More snow and cold later this week. 

kpl

What to you like to do in the New England snow?  Do you like building things with the snow, or just playing in it?

I love to ski, but it is expensive and finding time to do it is difficult.  After all, the best snow days for skiing are the ones I have to be at work to cover all that snow.  This coming Sunday will likely be one of those days with snow coming Saturday.  If skiing isn't your thing, or snowboarding, here's another idea.  Last week, my family went to Nashoba Valley right here in Massachusetts.  They offer skiing, but they also offer snow tubing.  It is sort of like glorified sledding.  You get a heavy-duty tube and ride it down super fast tubing lanes.  When you get to the bottom, you pick up your tube and walk over to the lift.  Your tube is hooked to the lift, you sit in the tube, and you are towed to the top.  It couldn't be any easier.  Here are a couple of pictures to give you an idea. 








Dress warmly and have fun!

kpl

Wouldn't you rather have a snowstorm than this mess?

There will be some snow overnight, but it will be what comes after that is the problem.  As warm air moves in aloft, expect the flakes to melt.  Temperatures below will stay cold, though, especially inland.  That means pellets of ice, sleet, will fall.  Worst of all, raindrops may hit the freezing ground and become an icy glaze.  We've seen this already this season with the ice storm in December.  The results were devastating.  Let's hope this one isn't as bad.

Expect an awful morning commute, Wednesday, but a better evening drive.  The updated snow maps, radars and 5-day are all on the weather page.  Make sure you keep up to date, and be very careful on the roads.

I did not come up with this idea, but I did read about it in the Boston Globe. 

It seems some environmentalists are touting eating kangaroo as opposed to beef or lamb.  One reason is that kangaroos have less gas.  That's right!  If you've driven by a farm with cows, you know that smell.  Much of that smell comes from methane, a greenhouse gas associated with global warming.  Since livestock account for 70% of Australia's agricultural emissions, cutting the amount of pooping cows would help with global warming.  Kangaroos, I read, have a certain bacteria in them that aid in digesting grass.  This leads to less smelly emissions, thus helping our planet's delicate greenhouse gas balance. 

Sounds good until you consider you have to kill more than 3 times the current 'roo population to make as much meat as is currently produced from cattle.  Of course, it may be healthy for other reasons.  Kanga only has about 3% fat!

Fire up that barbie!

Sound good to you?

I say Christmas, you say (fill in the blank).  Whatever it is for you, I hope the next week is joyous for you leading up to 2009. 

I love what I do.  The hours kind of stink for family life, admittedly, but I love forecasting the weather here in New England.  I am honored to have the chance to present my thoughts to you 5 nights a week (okay, more this past week with the snow... sick of me?) on FOX 25.  I've been here for over 12 years now, since September 1996 when we first launched as FOX News Boston.  I am proud to be the only scientist to be called FOX 25 Chief Meteorologist.  We are a totally different place now, tops in the market.  There have been growing pains, but I'd like to think I've grown up (some would disagree) along with FOX 25. 

My hope for 2009, professionally, is that I continue to get better at my presentations and, especially, my forecasting.  I never like to disappoint you with what I do.  Rest assured that nobody beats me up more than me when something goes wrong.  I don't leave my weather "cave", as I like to call it, much during the night, so my interaction with much of our staff is limited.  All of you reading my blog should know what a first-rate staff it is.  From Chris in audio to Mike directing to Brian jibbing to Kim producing to Jeff on the web to John writing to our incredible photojournalists and editors.  Know that without all of them I wouldn't be writing this, and you wouldn't even know who I am.  They put us on television and make us look as good as we can.  I am indebted to them for that. 

Thank you for allowing me on your television each night, reading this blog, and trusting what I have to tell you with regard to the weather forecast.  I hold no professional responsibility higher.

I've seen the movie, so I know it is much colder during an ice age, but this weekend at least looked like one, didn't it?  Loads of snow Friday started it.  The snow just wouldn't quit Saturday, then the next one hit Sunday.  Another load of snow for many.  Here are some totals from our spotters.  As always, thank you for all your valuable help.

These are for the whole weekend...
Millis 15.5"
Gardner  16"
Dorchester  18.7"
Center Harbor, NH  24"
Middleboro  17"
Milford  19.5"
Hingham  21.5"
Braintree  20"
North Brookfield  19"
Concord  19"
Leicester  13.5"
Chelmsford  20"
East Boston  15.7"  Logan Airport

Here is a link to the list on the National Weather Service website...
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&format
=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off&issuedby=BOX&pro
duct=PNS

Careful on the icy roads Monday morning.  Winds are strong, too, so watch for weak branches and power lines. 

Happy Hanukkah.

kpl

The Friday storm acted just about as expected.  Most had 8-12" as expected, the wind whipped up, and there was little mixing.  It even started about 2 pm, as we thought.  Not bad.

No time to revel in that forecast, as another storm is on the way.  In fact, with a winter storm warning still in effect from the Friday storm, a winter storm watch was issued for the next storm.  This one figures to hit us Sunday morning and continue through the afternoon.  It figures to be another fast storm, so it won't stick around for Sunday night.  It'll be quite a start for Hanukkah.  The Sunday storm is a little trickier to forecast, as a little warm air may get involved.  That means areas southeast of Boston will likely see a change to rain.  Figure I95 as a possible line to use as a guide. 

This could change, but as I write this Friday night, I am expecting 3-5" of snow in Boston, but 5-8" beyond 128 to the north and west.  Expect snow at the start of the Patriots game in Foxboro.

We'll see how it works out.  After all, you are only as good as your last forecast.

 

kpl

We made it through the warm-up storm.  I'll post the snow totals, feeble as they are, in my last blog, Storm #1.  This post will be used to discuss Friday.

As of this writing, Wednesday evening, we already have a Winter Storm Watch for the area.  That means the potential for more than 6" of snow.  The cold air is moving in now, and will be entrenched.  The storm is just coming into the southwestern U.S.  It has a long way to go to get here, so keep in mind we are mainly relying on computer projections to determine snow potential.  If this storm stays on track, we are looking at a general 6-12" snowfall.  Temperatures at the ground may be marginal for a time on the Cape and Islands, which would hold totals down a bit.  Farther to the north, away from the storm center, amounts will drop off a bit as well.  It is a swath between Nashua and Plymouth that figures to have the most snow.

The south shore will have the heaviest precipitation, but since temperatures will be warmer, it will translate to less snow than colder areas to the north, where there will be less water content to the snow.  For instance, we start with the premise that there will be an 10 inches of snow for every inch of water content falling.  As the temperature drops below 20 degrees, one inch of water equals 20 inches of snow!  Just another factor to adjust our snow forecast.

There is still time to adjust this forecast, so stay with us.  You can always find the latest snow map on our weather page... you know what to do. 

The ice clean-up continues around I495 and points north and west of that highway.  Funny how that boundary seems to hold up pretty well with winter weather.  It looks like our next storm may flirt with the same dividing line. 

The front exiting the region Tuesday with rain showers (possibly some snow showers at the end) will hang just offshore.  An area of low pressure forming in the south, and bringing sleet to Texas Monday night, will push that old front back north toward us as a warm front.  The warmer air riding up over the cold air that will, by then, have moved into New England will produce snow.  I expect some accumulation by Wednesday morning.  Here is what I am thinking...
Mainly rain southeast of Plymouth
Slushy light accumulations north to 128... maybe an inch+... before becoming rain
1-2" of Snow and Sleet within the 128 beltway and down I95
2-4" Snow likely north and west of 128, with the highest amounts (4) in the highest elevations... most will end up 2-3"

This could change as the storm evolves, so check with Cindy first thing in the morning and me in the evening Tuesday.

kpl